Estimating your marathon time: Why? How?

The distance of a marathon is the same for everyone: 42.195 km.

What changes is the time it takes us to cover it ...

The world record for the distance is currently held by Kenyan Eliud Kipchoge, who set a time of 2 h 01 min 39 s at the Berlin Marathon on September 16, 2018.

But rest assured, the average marathon time is around 4h30, more than twice this record.

When you start a marathon, it is important to plan as accurately as possible the time you aim to achieve.

This allows you to manage your pace and effort as effectively as possible, so that you do not "explode in midair" because of an adrenaline-fueled burst of overexertion during the first half of the course or, conversely, perform below your potential because of an overly cautious pace.

Here are our tips for setting a reasonable goal and living up to your ambitions:

1  -  Make the right prediction

To help you estimate your time for your next marathon as accurately as possible, there are several formulas, one of the best known being Pete Riegel's calculation method. This method is based on the empirical observation of an approximately 6% decline in performance due to fatigue when the distance doubles.

Here is a site that will allow you to estimate your time using an updated Riegel formula (4 to 5% instead of 6%).

Of course, you need to adjust this estimated time to account for the many variables, such as the weather, elevation gain, crowds on the course, congestion at the start, and simply your fitness level on race day.  

2  -  A few tips

The warm-up: Before the start, this is THE key to effectively managing your pace and effort from the very first kilometers. Many marathon runners say to themselves, "I'm already going to run more than 40 km; I don't need to add to that, or I'll use up my energy reserves." This is a mistake! A proper 20- to 25-minute warm-up will help you settle into the right pace—YOUR pace—from the start.

The pace setter: In marathons, there are runners from the organization who will complete the distance to the exact minute at an extremely steady pace. Their target time is clearly visible from a distance on a sign, flag, inflatable balloon, etc. Simply position yourself near the pace setter announcing the time closest to your goal; they will be an excellent reference throughout the race.

... and of course your spectators, your music,...and around you a city and a magical atmosphere...that will carry you.

3-  Nutrition and hydration: maximize your chances!

In a long-distance event such as a marathon, sports nutrition and aid stations play a vital role. The goal is, among other things, to prevent possible dehydration, maintain optimal blood sugar levels, combat fatigue and the feeling of hunger, and thus maintain a level of fitness that allows you to achieve your goal. In this context, a nutritional strategy carefully adapted to the specific needs of the "Before, During, After" periods is particularly important.

The 3 days before the competition:

• Stay sufficiently hydrated: it will be important to hydrate well throughout the day. Water is essential for glycogen storage: 1 g of glycogen requires 3 g of water (so a slight increase in weight is normal). The water should be adequately mineralized and contain the sodium required for carbohydrate absorption.

• Increase your portion of starchy foods (bread, pasta, rice, semolina, etc…) at each of the 3 meals to increase glycogen stores.

• To build up these reserves, carbohydrate loading is an option. To do this, you can consider a 3-day course of a drink based on maltodextrin .

• Reduce your intake of foods rich in fats and sugars to balance your energy intake and spare your digestive system (expenditure=intake). Therefore, avoid deli meats, fried foods, fatty cheeses, sauces, soft drinks, etc…

•  Limit your fiber intake the day before, as fiber is found in large quantities in raw fruit, for example, in order to spare your digestive system during the competition. Instead, choose fruit compotes or cooked fruit.

• Consider a course of supplements supporting effort management and fatigue prevention. For example, malate and citrulline act on energy production in cells, waste removal, and improved muscle oxygenation.

Race day:

• Hydration from the moment you wake up is necessary, as well as before, during, and after the competition and throughout the evening

• No fats: deli meats, cheeses, fried foods, pastries, biscuits, chocolate … during meals or for cooking

• Eat lean meat or fish cooked in water or grilled

• Reduce added fats, such as butter and fresh cream, without eliminating oils rich in fatty acids

• The meal before the race should be eaten 3 hours before the competition begins. 

• 2 hours beforehand, you can also consider having an energy cake or, 2 hours beforehand, an energy bar

It is essential to provide the body with water (mineralized), sugars, and protein in order to build up the energy reserves you will need during your race. Insufficient energy increases the risk of an underperforming race due to fatigue and loss of motivation.

During the race:

We advise the athletes we support to regularly consume (every 15 to 20 minutes) an isotonic sports drink. Also consume energy gels every 30 to 35 minutes or energy chews every 20 minutes. It is very important to drink before you feel thirsty and eat before you feel hungry or weak. Slight dehydration or a sudden energy slump can ruin a competition or training session.

After the race:

For optimal recovery, we advise the athletes we support to consume an isotonic drink or a special recovery drink as soon as the effort ends (no later than 3 hours afterward), and to add protein (drink or protein bar) immediately after the effort.

In summary, it looks like this:

 Feel free to ask us for advice on aligning your nutritional strategy with your training and racing plan.

 Discover our leading marathon brands: